Reliability assessment is an important procedure in engineering design in which the probability of failure or equivalently the probability of survival is computed based on appropriate design criteria and model behavior. In this paper, a new approximate and efficient reliability assessment method is proposed: the conditional probability method (CPM). Focus is set on computational efficiency and the proposed method is applied to classical load-strength structural reliability problems. The core of the approach is in the computation of the probability of failure starting from the conditional probability of failure given the load. The number of function evaluations to compute the probability of failure is a priori known to be 3n + 2 in CPM, where n is the number of stochastic design variables excluding the strength. The necessary number of function evaluations for the reliability assessment, which may correspond to expensive computations, is therefore substantially lower in CPM than in the existing structural reliability methods such as the widely used first-order reliability method (FORM).
Skip Nav Destination
Article navigation
August 2018
Research-Article
Efficient Reliability Assessment With the Conditional Probability Method
Rami Mansour,
Rami Mansour
Department of Solid Mechanics,
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: ramimans@kth.se
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: ramimans@kth.se
Search for other works by this author on:
Mårten Olsson
Mårten Olsson
Department of Solid Mechanics,
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: mart@kth.se
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: mart@kth.se
Search for other works by this author on:
Rami Mansour
Department of Solid Mechanics,
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: ramimans@kth.se
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: ramimans@kth.se
Mårten Olsson
Department of Solid Mechanics,
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: mart@kth.se
Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm SE-100 44, Sweden
e-mail: mart@kth.se
Contributed by the Design Automation Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received November 8, 2017; final manuscript received April 18, 2018; published online June 1, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Samy Missoum.
J. Mech. Des. Aug 2018, 140(8): 081402 (12 pages)
Published Online: June 1, 2018
Article history
Received:
November 8, 2017
Revised:
April 18, 2018
Citation
Mansour, R., and Olsson, M. (June 1, 2018). "Efficient Reliability Assessment With the Conditional Probability Method." ASME. J. Mech. Des. August 2018; 140(8): 081402. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4040170
Download citation file:
Get Email Alerts
DeepJEB: 3D Deep Learning-Based Synthetic Jet Engine Bracket Dataset
J. Mech. Des (April 2025)
Design and Justice: A Scoping Review in Engineering Design
J. Mech. Des (May 2025)
Related Articles
Adaptive Designs of Experiments for Accurate Approximation of a Target Region
J. Mech. Des (July,2010)
A Random Process Metamodel Approach for Time-Dependent Reliability
J. Mech. Des (January,2016)
Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Mean-Value Second-Order Saddlepoint Approximation
J. Mech. Des (March,2018)
Reliability Analysis of Nonlinear Vibratory Systems Under Non-Gaussian Loads
J. Mech. Des (February,2018)
Related Proceedings Papers
Related Chapters
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF PIPELINE GIRTH WELDS USING GAUSSIAN PROCESS REGRESSION
Pipeline Integrity Management Under Geohazard Conditions (PIMG)
On the Exact Analysis of Non-Coherent Fault Trees: The ASTRA Package (PSAM-0285)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)
A PSA Update to Reflect Procedural Changes (PSAM-0217)
Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management (PSAM)